As the sun-drenched days of summer slowly give way to cooler, more comfortable autumn breezes, Houstonians are eager to know what the approaching winter has in store. While locals are not typically accustomed to freezing temperatures, the last few years have brought a chillier twist to the city’s winters. Are we to expect another cold season with a frosty bite? Thankfully, probably not.

This winter is expected to be milder because of El Niño, a weather pattern caused by above-average sea surface temperatures. This phenomenon originates in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and has a far-reaching impact on global weather behaviors. Matt Lanza, managing editor and forecast meteorologist at Space City Weather, explains that while this natural circumstance affects the entire world differently, it means good things for Houston.

“It has ramifications for virtually everyone,” Lanza says. “In our case, typically what happens is you end up with a cool winter but not necessarily a cold winter. You usually end up wetter than normal here in Texas.”

El Niño, meaning “the child” in Spanish and named as such due to its tendency to emerge around Christmastime, can be seen as a guardian angel for Houston’s winter. Unlike the bone-chilling freezes of the past few years, this weather pattern has the power to transform the season into something milder and more manageable.

“If you look back historically at winds, Houston has been, just for the sake of argument, 20 degrees or colder for nighttime levels, which is kind of that level of wind if you  get a real damaging freeze,” Lanza says. “The majority of the times that happens is not in El Niño years.”

Lanza also believes that the hot temperatures are officially done with and residents can now look forward to milder weather for the rest of the month.

The new season brings a collective sigh of relief. Over the summer, the region struggled with a devastatingly long drought and a heat dome that brought scorching heat and dryness to Houston, forcing local authorities to implement city-wide water conservation policies. With El Niño comes more moisture, which offers the hope of replenishing parched land. However, the typical showers that are expected from El Niño are uncertain, based on the low amounts of rainfall so far this year.

“I would have expected to see a little bit more rain than we’ve seen already this year, particularly in the last month and a half or so,” Lanza says. “I’m wondering if the old rules will hold this winter with a wet winter but I would anticipate that we at least see a few decent storms this winter to bring us a good bit of rain.”

While the forthcoming winter may not be drenched in unrelenting rain, Lanza expects moisture to gradually amass over the course of the season, eventually balancing out by the time March rolls around. This balance hints at the possibility of a very wet spring.

In terms of the 2023 hurricane season, as Houston edges toward the end of the year, residents can breathe a little easier. Lanza assures us that threats from the Atlantic are not a significant concern for the region.

“Anything that forms in the Atlantic would be very likely to go north or northeast,” Lanza says. “If it forms in the Caribbean it will go toward Florida or the Bahamas. But the Western Gulf should be pretty much shut off at this point from anything significant.”

In a nutshell, Houstonians can anticipate a winter that is more forgiving than the frigid seasons of recent years. El Niño is set to be the protagonist in this weather drama, steering the city toward milder temperatures and potentially more rain. Although the probability of having a hard freeze this winter is unlikely, Lanza still encourages Houstonians to stay prepared for an alternate scenario.

“The odds are kind of in our favor for not having a strong freeze,” Lanza says. “But you probably should be prepared anyway, just in case. Because there’s always exceptions to the rule.”

Seasoned Texans know what that means: When temperatures get close to freezing, don’t forget to wrap your pipes.