There comes a time in every Houstonian’s life where they have to sit down, read the hurricane season forecast, and start making sure their emergency kits are well-stocked and evacuation plans are in place. Said time, of course, rolls around once per year. The 2025 hurricane season begins June 1 and runs until November 30. Matt Lanza, meteorologist at Space City Weather, says data currently points to an average to above average season.

“We’ve seen a couple of forecasts come out already, one from Colorado State, and then…NOAA issued theirs, and they’re both kind of singing from the same sheet of music, I think,” he says.

Lanza adds that while 2024 was a bad season in terms of the damages sustained in Florida, North Carolina, and the Gulf Coast, the actual number of storms that made landfall ended up being less than predicted. Atlantic waters around the Gulf Coast and Caribbean won’t be at “the level of insane warmth that we saw last year,” he says, with neither an El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nor La Niña weather event occurring.

ENSO refers to a climate phenomenon involving warm, weakened trade winds shifting the Pacific jet stream downward, where it eventually makes its way into the Atlantic and can influence cyclonic activity. Its counterpart, La Niña, is the exact opposite. It brings cold, strong trade winds from the Pacific to the Atlantic, pushing the jet stream upward. This can also lead to a nasty hurricane season. Lanza jokingly refers to years when ENSO and La Niña don’t make an appearance as “La Nada,” though the technical term is ENSO neutral.

To gauge what 2025 may have in store for the Gulf Coast, consider this: An average hurricane season involves an estimated 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, according to Lanza. Above average entails up to 19 named storms, up to 10 hurricanes, and up to five major hurricanes. But these numbers aren’t as scary as they may initially appear. Lanza’s “spitballing” estimate is that about 80 percent of the storms aren’t going to ever end up making landfall anyway.

“Hurricane season’s usually fairly busy, but the storms that actually matter are usually fewer,” he says.

This early in the season, no meteorologists are able to make predictions on where storms may form and, if so, what trajectories they may take. Right now, the best guess is that the Bermuda High—a high pressure system that remains in a semipermanent position over the eponymous island—will be weak this year. If that’s the case, it will push fewer storms toward the Caribbean, the Gulf, and the rest of the Southeast. This information cannot and should not be considered definitive for the 2025 hurricane season, either. It’s merely a conjecture based on the most currently available data.

Lanza refers to his calling as “almost like a publicly accessible scientific experiment that we’re all kind of conducting,” meaning they rely on pattern recognition and updated weather information to produce the most accurate possible forecasts. But weather can be a mercurial (pun intended) study, throwing in last-minute variables that can render even the most expert projections obsolete in seconds.

“The reality is that any year could be the year that you end up getting hit by a hurricane, even in a quiet year,” Lanza says. “So we always tell people just be prepared, no matter what we say.”

His go-to guide is the annual hurricane preparedness brochure published by the National Weather Service. It’s free, and provides a comprehensive overview of what to do in the event of not just hurricanes, but storm surges, tornadoes, and inland flooding. The guide also details the difference between a watch and a warning, as well as instructions on evacuating safely and handling insurance claims or asking for financial assistance after damages. Lanza finds the checklists detailing what supplies to put in an emergency kit especially helpful. And there’s one critical piece of equipment he keeps reminding Houstonians they always need to keep on hand when the worst happens.

“Have a battery-power, or crank-power, or solar-powered radio, because that’s going to be, in a lot of cases, the only source of information you get,” he says.

Lanza also advises to follow evacuation orders to the letter. If you do not live in an area that’s currently being evacuated, it’s recommended that you shelter in place. He notes that during Hurricane Rita, more people died during the evacuation process than the actual weather event due to clogged freeways. For the sake of public safety, he says it’s critical to know your evacuation zone (hint: check the guide he recommended) and stay tuned in to the news for instructions on when to leave and when to stay put—hence why a radio is so necessary in a hurricane kit. In addition, keep your tank topped off ahead of time so you’re not waiting in long lines at the gas station when you need to be on the road away from Houston.

“All these different things…you should be thinking about [them] now, so that when the time comes, you know what you’re going to do and what to have,” Lanza says.