Brace yourselves, Houston. This year’s hurricane season is shaping up to be a doozy. According to Matt Lanza, meteorologist at Space City Weather, all indicators point toward a significantly more active hurricane season than usual. With a potential 14 named storms and seven hurricanes that could hit the Gulf—three of which are expected to be Category 3 or higher—Houstonians should prepare for a turbulent summer and fall.

“All the seasonal forecasts that have come out lately have been very active,” Lanza says. “NOAA just issued their most active hurricane preseason forecast ever. There’s nothing in the data that argues against that.”

The combination of above-average water temperatures and favorable atmospheric conditions drives these predictions. The Gulf of Mexico, in particular, has seen a significant increase in temperature over the past few weeks, now running several degrees above normal. This warming trend sets the stage for a hyperactive hurricane season with the Gulf’s record levels contributing to the development and intensification of storms, potentially fostering off-season movement.

Typically, the peak hurricane activity for Texas occurs in August and September. However, Lanza suggests keeping an eye on early summer and fall too due to unusually warm water temperatures. “This year merits watching July or early October a little bit closer than we normally would,” Lanza says.

Beyond the potential for off-season activity, there’s also the question of how these storms will behave once they develop. Last year’s season, despite being active, saw storms veer away from the coastline, minimizing the impact on Houston. This year, the absence of the persistent heat dome that deflected storms in 2023 could mean a different outcome.

“The weather pattern, even though we are expecting a hot summer, I don’t think is going to be quite like what we saw last year,” Lanza says. “The door is going to be at least cracked open a little more for storms to potentially get into the Gulf, maybe get a little bit closer to the East Coast.” This increases the possibility of Houston feeling the direct effects more than usual.

Adding to the complexity of this year’s forecast is the transition from El Niño to La Niña. These opposing climate patterns reflect the warm and cool phases across the tropical Pacific.

“We’re expected to go into a full-blown La Niña by mid-to-late summer, but the bottom line is if El Niño is weakening or dissipating that should relax wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean,” Lanza says. “What that will do is create a slightly more hospitable environment for storms to take advantage of the really warm water. So, less things that can frustrate a storm should be in place this hurricane season as opposed to last year.”

Given these predictions, preparation is key. Lanza emphasizes the importance of understanding the difference between storms and hurricanes, especially since each brings a unique set of hazards.

“Any storm that has sustained winds above 39 miles an hour is a tropical storm,” Lanza says. “If it gets to 74 miles an hour, it becomes a hurricane; and [at] 115 miles an hour, you get major hurricane levels.”

Understanding these distinctions is crucial for preparedness and response efforts. While wind speed is a primary metric for categorizing storms, their impacts can vary widely. Some storms may bring primarily wind damage, while others pose a greater risk of flooding or electrical surges.

Lanza also stresses the need for Houstonians to stay informed and remain vigilant throughout the hurricane season. He recommends checking the National Weather Service for regular updates and detailed information about developing storms. Don’t rely solely on weather apps, which may not provide the complete picture.

As Houstonians brace themselves for what could be an eventful hurricane season, it’s crucial to have a plan in place. Understanding evacuation routes, stocking up on emergency supplies, and preparing your home are essential steps for mitigating risks.

Vigilance and preparedness can make all the difference in mitigating the impacts of nature’s wrath. Stay informed, stay safe, and be ready to weather the challenges that might lie ahead.