As the year draws to a close and we’re still experiencing 90-degree weather well into October, you may be wondering what the colder months have in store for us. The past few winters have brought their fair share of surprises. There was Winter Storm Uri in 2021, best-known to Texans as simply the Freeze because of how bad it was. Cold snaps in 2022 and 2023 also brought strains to the grid and quite a few frozen pipes (remember to wrap 'em!).

The good news? Meteorologist Matt Lanza from Space City Weather is predicting a generally warmer and drier season this go around.

The angel to thank for this mild winter outlook is the ongoing La Niña phenomenon. This climatic pattern involves the cooling of the central Pacific Ocean, which can have significant impacts on global weather. “There’s typically some decent historical correlations between La Niña winters and what we see here in South Texas,” Lanza says, noting that the region’s warm October, particularly in the daytime, is indicative of the trend.

In fact, the many blessings of this climate pattern extend beyond the potentially not-jarring temperatures—spring could even come sooner, with the temperate  winter accelerating the season’s arrival.

“I’ve seen that happen in the past with these types of winters where you end up having that one-week cold punch, but the majority of the winter is just asking, ‘Where is it?’ because you have ’80s in December or January, and it just feels really abnormal,” Lanza says.

But this doesn’t mean the season will be completely smooth sailing. Lanza still cautions Houstonians should be prepared for occasional cold fronts that could bring sleet, although the chances of icy streets are pretty slim, especially considering the region’s ongoing drought.

While the drought may not be as severe as the one experienced last summer, it remains a concern for locals. Lanza says that if it continues it could prompt water restrictions and agricultural issues, especially as the winter months progress.

“Droughts tend to start slowly and then ramp up pretty quick,” he says. “The ground doesn’t dry out quite as fast during wintertime as it does when it’s really hot in the summer. So, things progress a little slowly. For now, it’s a problem but it’s not a huge problem. I would not be shocked if we start to see some water restrictions as a preemptive measure in some parts of the area.”

As for hurricane season, which officially ends November 30, Lanza reassures us that the immediate threat is waning. Houston suffered a particularly tumultuous one with Hurricane Beryl throwing us for a loop and plunging us into darkness for days, but the forecast indicates that the worst is behind us.

“It’s over here in Texas. We’re done. For the Eastern Gulf [and] the Caribbean, maybe not. Might have another couple weeks left in it,” Lanza says. “[It’s] the time of year where anything that develops usually goes east. I think we can breathe easier and start rehashing what happened this season and prepping for the next one.”

Despite the positive outlook for the upcoming season, Lanza encourages locals to be proactive and think of their preparations just like they would other major weather phenomena in Houston, especially in light of recent winters that caught many off guard. Assemble a winter kit, which he says can be an extension of your hurricane kit, since some of the issues experienced during both seasons are the same.

“There’s always a chance that you’re going to have power disruption or you can’t get out of your house for a few days because of ice,” he says. “So, just in case you get stranded, you’ve got something to keep you warm if you can’t get to shelter. It’s always better to be over-prepared than underprepared.”