Last summer’s record-breaking heat is still a fresh memory for Houstonians—and not a good one. Temperatures soared well above average for extended periods, with 21 consecutive days above 100 degrees in August, creating sweltering conditions that tested both patience and resilience. To add insult to injury, a drought blanketing much of the region necessitated city-wide water conservation efforts, while air-conditioning units worked overtime to provide relief from the oppressive hot weather. (A reminder to schedule your tune-up now.)

The upcoming season has many wondering what fresh hell we’re in for next. However, there’s a glimmer of hope this year. Forecasters predict a reprieve from the relentless heat that dominated the past two summers. While Houston can still expect a scorcher (it’s Texas, after all), Matt Lanza of Space City Weather suggests it might not be quite as record-breaking as 2023.

“Every summer is hot in Houston, it’s just a matter of, relative to average, how hot is it?” Lanza says. “What we would want to see is what happens between now and mid-to-late May. That’ll give us a hint of what at least the first half of summer might be like.”

Lanza says there’s a chance the start of summer could be quite hot, mirroring the brutal heat of recent years. Residents who haven’t yet unpacked their summer wardrobes might find themselves digging them out sooner rather than later. However, there’s a chance it might ease up in the latter half, offering a breath of fresh air similar to the more pleasant August of 2022.

The determining factor, according to Lanza, hinges on the weather patterns that emerge in May. A spring marked by variability, including the occasional cold front and cool spells, could signal a milder start to the summer. Conversely, if a stubborn heat dome (remember that?) settles over Texas, bringing dry and scorching conditions, residents may need to brace themselves for a challenging start to the season.

“Last summer wasn’t terrible until we got to about mid-to-late June and 2022 was terrible beginning in May,” Lanza says. “I think if we had to really put money on one side or the other, I would lean toward a hotter than average front of summer and then maybe something a little bit more normal sort of back half of summer.”

The season also brings with it the ever-present threat of hurricanes. La Niña, the current weather phenomenon where the waters of the Pacific Ocean around the equator are cooler than normal, is expected to reach Houston at that time and has historically brought the city what Lanza calls “more active hurricane seasons.” He warns that despite cooler temperatures in the Gulf compared to last year, the overall warmth of the Atlantic basin could help fuel an uptick.

“The Gulf is always going to be warm enough for hurricanes but the entire Atlantic is just really, really warm,” Lanza says.

Last year’s hurricane season, despite the presence of El Niño (when waters are warmer), proved surprisingly inactive, with storms mostly staying out at sea. However, this year, the warm Atlantic temperatures signal a potentially busier season, raising concerns for communities closer to the coast.

Lanza advises locals to prioritize hurricane preparedness. This includes assembling a hurricane kit stocked with nonperishable food, water, medications, and other essentials. Staying informed by following reputable weather sources and local advisories is also crucial. Evacuation plans, particularly for those in designated zones, should be reviewed and updated to ensure a smooth and safe departure if necessary.

“This is probably the year that I would consider making my plans for hurricane season, if you, like a lot of people, put it off,” Lanza says.

While the possibility of a less-brutal summer offers a welcome prospect, Houstonians shouldn’t completely abandon heat mitigation strategies. Scheduling outdoor activities for cooler mornings and evenings whenever possible remains a good practice. Staying hydrated throughout the day is essential, and residents should prioritize loose-fitting, light-colored clothing that allows for breathability. And did we mention getting that A/C tune-up? Yes, now.